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UPDATE: Saturday, June 12, 2010      The Japan Times Weekly    2008年5月10日号 (バックナンバー)
 
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MYANNMAR
Deadly cyclone poses political risks to Myanmar's junta

The deadly cyclone that ripped into Myanmar could shake the stranglehold on power of the country's ruling generals — becoming a force for change more powerful than massive pro-democracy demonstrations and international sanctions.

Natural disasters by themselves are unlikely to trigger change but instead tend to help undermine already corrupt or failing systems.

Few people think revolution is in the air in Myanmar — not while the victims are still burying their dead, now totaling 22,000 and climbing.

But by an unusual accident of timing, the cyclone ripped through the country May 3, just a week before the May 10 referendum on a proposed constitution that the military hoped would go smoothly in its favor, despite opposition from the country's feisty pro-democracy movement.

The vote now gives people a rare and relatively safe way to express their discontent with the country's junta. The higher the death toll climbs — and the less effective the government's relief efforts prove — the bigger the potential for undermining the military's mandate to rule.

"The juxtaposition of the cyclone and the voting might cause many in Burma to feel this is an indication that the military should not be in power," said David Steinberg, a Myanmar expert at Georgetown University, referring to the country by its old name.

Cases in recent history where disasters helped blaze a trail for reforms include a 1985 earthquake in Mexico that many believe marked the beginning of the end for the long-ruling PRI party and Nicaragua's 1972 earthquake, which led to the decline of the dictator Somoza.

The Japan Times Weekly: May 10, 2008
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