Futenma's fate back to the future, worst-case scenario possible
(From The Japan Times Dec. 17 issue)

要約
普天間決定の先送り

The coalition government of the Democratic Party of Japan, the Social Democratic Party and the New People's Party have put off until next year a decision on the relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station in the central part of Okinawa Island. The government will seek possible alternatives to relocating the base to Henoko — the site in the northern part of the island that Japan and the United States agreed on in 2006.

The decision Dec. 15 is certain to further irritate the United States, which regards the 2006 accord as "the only feasible measure" and has called for resolving the Futenma issue by the end of this year. In a November meeting in Tokyo, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama and U.S. President Barack Obama agreed to resolve the issue sooner rather than later. At that time, Mr. Hatoyama reportedly said to Mr. Obama, "Trust me." The Dec. 15 decision will heighten America's reservations about Mr. Hatoyama.

The decision shows that Mr. Hatoyama has opted for the difficult path of virtually restarting talks with the United States. He ordered Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada and Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa to look for candidate sites for the relocation apart from Henoko. Behind the decision is his desire to lighten the burden on the Okinawan people under the Japan-U.S. security setup as well as the political reality that he cannot ignore the SDP's strong call for the Futenma facility to be moved outside Okinawa Prefecture.

So far, Mr. Hatoyama's flip-flops, and the lack of coordination between views expressed by Mr. Okada and Mr. Kitazawa, have deepened suspicions that the Hatoyama administration is in disarray over Futenma. Now that a difficult path has been chosen, unity in the administration is imperative. Mr. Hatoyama and Cabinet members cannot be too careful of their words.

Big questions are whether Mr. Hatoyama has in mind a clear scenario for the negotiations, and whether he is prepared to cope with the worst-case scenario — the Futenma function continuing to sit where it is and some 8,000 U.S. Marines remaining in Okinawa without moving to Guam. He will need determination and realism to carry through the negotiations.

連立与党は普天間問題決着を来年に先送りし、日米合意した辺野古以外の候補地も検討する。米国は2006年の合意を「唯一実行可能な案」として年末までの問題解決を求め、日米首脳は早急に結論を出すことで一致していた。延期は米国側の苛立ちを強めることになる。

首相は米国との再交渉という困難な道を選び、岡田外相と北沢防衛相に移転先探しを指示した。首相の発言の変化や関係閣僚の発言の食い違いなどから、鳩山政権は普天間問題で混乱しているという疑念が深まった。今こそ内閣が団結し、発言に十分気をつけねばならない。首相が明確な交渉計画を持っているのか、普天間返還や海兵隊員グアム移転の凍結という最悪の結果に対応できるのかは疑問だ。決意と現実主事の双方をもって交渉を実行する必要がある。