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UPDATE: Saturday, June 12, 2010      The Japan Times Weekly    2009年12月12日号 (バックナンバー)
 
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Choice of EU's new leaders shows importance of political competence
(From The Japan Times Dec. 3 issue)

 


要約
EU大統領、外相の政治手腕に期待

"Who?" was the general reaction to the selection of the European Union's first semipermanent president of the European Council and the high representative for foreign affairs, who took office Dec. 1. Although Mr. Herman van Rompuy, formerly Belgium's prime minister, and Mrs. Catherine Ashton of Britain, holders of the respective posts, are relative unknowns on the international stage, they have long records of domestic success.

The two are capable of navigating the treacherous straits of European politics but are unlikely "leaders" of Europe. That may satisfy the European heads of state, but it will not realize the desire that the EU play a more prominent role in global politics — at least not yet.

Mr. Van Rompuy is a Flemish Christian Democrat who became prime minister only last December after serving as deputy prime minister and budget minister. He is little known outside Belgium, where politics is a blood sport. His ability to reach the top speaks well to his political skills, most notably his ability to work out compromises.

Mrs. Ashton — Baroness Ashton of Upholland — has been EU trade commissioner for a year during which she concluded the EU-South Korea free-trade agreement. A member of the House of Lords, she held a number of junior ministerial posts in Labour governments. She has never held elected office.

Creation of these two jobs was part of the larger project to modernize and streamline the EU, and give it a greater impact and personality in global affairs. Yet the selection of these two individuals demonstrates that the tensions that have long dominated European politics — between left and right, between big and small countries, and between the very community itself and its members — have not been resolved.

Note, for example, the political balance between the center-right president and the left-leaning high representative. Not coincidentally, those are also the two biggest groups in the European Parliament. Note, too, the apportioning of the two slots between a small, Euro-friendly power and a larger, Euro-skeptic one. This reflects the concern of smaller countries that picking a council president from a large country would mean the eclipse of the president of the European Commission.

There were also somewhat more mundane political considerations — the usual logrolling. The selection of Mrs. Ashton is seen as the payoff for Britain's withdrawal of its support for former Prime Minister Tony Blair as president. The fact that she is a woman was another key consideration.

The most important factor influencing the selection of these two people was the desire of key EU nations to avoid creating competition for their leaders. There were several candidates who were political heavyweights and internationally recognized figures. That shortlist included such luminaries as Mr. Blair and Sweden's former prime minister, Mr. Carl Bildt. They would have projected the European presence on the global stage, as was ostensibly intended by the creation of the two jobs.

But with those names came powerful personalities and Europe's current crop of national leaders were not prepared to give their predecessors — like Mr. Blair or Mr. Bildt — such a high-profile platform. Indeed, Germany and France could have pressed their candidates for high representative, but the EU's internal political balancing act would have required each government to put forth a candidate from the opposition — a move neither was prepared to make, especially when they would rather retain the influence to claim key economic portfolios in the European bureaucracy.

In other words, critical European foreign policy decisions will remain the province of national governments rather than the EU as a whole. This tension between national and collective interests continues to dominate European decision-making, despite the long-professed desire to create "a union" with a distinctive personality and thereby assert Europe's presence internationally.

The appointment of Mr. Von Rompuy and Mrs. Ashton represents Europe's recognition that its future depends on political competence rather than vision and on the ability to paint on a broad canvas. EU leaders must craft a consensus on their identity before they can hope to express themselves on a bigger stage. Europe must be able to speak with one voice if it is to be credible. Appearances — and egos — are no substitute for substance.

Internal political dynamics remain the most important component of European decision-making, no matter how high the post or how important the issue. That is a fact of life that Europe's new leaders will need to always keep in mind.

The Japan Times Weekly: Dec. 12, 2009
(C) All rights reserved
 

EU大統領と外相に、ファンロンパイ・ベルギー首相と英国のアシュトン欧州委員(通商担当)が選ばれ就任した。国際社会では事実上無名の二人だが、EU圏内ではさまざまな成功を収めている。

難しい欧州政治を率いる能力をもつ二人だが、統率者タイプではない。各国首脳は満足かもしれないが、国際政治の舞台でEUがより大きな役割を果たすという望みはまだ叶いそうにない。

昨年末に首相となったフラマン系キリスト教民主党のファンロンパイ氏は、ベルギー以外では無名に近いが、政治手腕は卓越しており、特に意見調整に長けている。

EU韓国間の自由貿易協定をまとめたアシュトン上院議員は、労働党で副閣僚級のポストを経験したが、選出公職に就いたことはない。

今回の人選は、欧州政治を支配してきた対立を物語っている。両ポストは、欧州議会の2大グループである中道右派と左派、かつユーロ賛成派の小国と懐疑派の大国出身者に振り分けられた。

欧州の重要な外交政策は今後もEU全体ではなく各国内で決断されるだろう。国益と欧州全体の利益という対立関係は根強く残る。

欧州の未来は、ビジョンを掲げることではなく、政治手腕と大きなキャンバスに絵を描く力にかかっているという認識が今回の人選に表れている。EUのアイデンティティについての合意がなければ、EU指導者は国際舞台で意見を表明することはできない。

欧州の政策決定において、EU圏内の政治力学は最も重要な要素であることを、EUの新しい大統領と外相は心にとめておかねばならない。

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