Historic day for Japan's politics
(From The Japan Times Aug. 31 issue)

要約
民主圧勝で歴史的政権交代

In a historic change in Japan's parliamentary political history, the Democratic Party of Japan defeated the Liberal Democratic Party-New Komeito ruling coalition in the Lower House election Aug. 30. The DPJ captured 308 seats out of the 480 in the all-important chamber.

The DPJ's victory ends an almost uninterrupted rule by the LDP since 1955. The election also represents the first Lower House election under general suffrage in which one opposition party has won a majority in the chamber by beating a ruling party that enjoyed a majority. Japan's democracy has moved one step forward, ushering in an age in which a change of government occurs through a popular election as a matter of course.

Despite the DPJ's big win, however, the election's outcome should not be interpreted as a simple "yes" vote for the DPJ. It is rather a "no" vote for the LDP. In fact, only 25 percent of those polled for an opinion survey by the Asahi Shimbun thought that Japan would head in a positive direction if there is a change of government. As many as 54 percent thought the situation would not change. This indicates the DPJ government faces a hard task.

In the September 2005 Lower House election, voters enthusiastically supported Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's LDP, whose slogan was "Don't stop the reform." But people's lives have not improved and disappointment has prevailed. Even when the economy was expanding, workers' wages did not rise. People just couldn't get a share of the economic expansion. Non-regular workers have come to account for one-third of the labor force and stable employment has become hard to come by. Poverty has become a real issue.

Three members of the LDP became prime minister in the post-Koizumi period without a mandate from voters, which resulted in people losing trust in LDP-led politics. Prime Minister Taro Aso's tenure, with frequent flip-flops over important issues such as the ¥2 trillion cash handout to individuals and reorganization of the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry, nurtured doubt over his qualifications to lead. All these negative factors for the LDP helped buoy support for the DPJ.

During the campaign, the political parties failed to provide grand designs for the future. Instead, they more or less concentrated on policy measures related to daily economics. Even so, differences became clear.

Most conspicuous was the DPJ's proposals to take the initiative for policy development from the hands of bureaucrats. They include sending about 100 lawmakers to oversee government ministries and agencies, forming Cabinet committees, each composed of several Cabinet ministers to deal with a particular issue, and establishing a national strategy bureau under the prime minister to work out a national vision and budget outline.

The DPJ aims to break the traditional triangular network of politicians, bureaucrats and industry ― the basis of LDP politics. But successfully meeting this challenge will require DPJ lawmakers to develop the ability to have bureaucrats disclose key information, which is often hidden, analyze it, and lead and control bureaucrats.

The DPJ is taking over government at a time of dire economic conditions. With the unemployment rate likely to rise sharply in the near future, the economy is the No. 1 issue. Not only does it have to improve the employment situation and revive the economy, the DPJ must tackle the long-term issue of repaying the nation's long-term debts, which will amount to about 170 percent of gross domestic product by the end of March.

DPJ leader Yukio Hatoyama's key concept is "return to the idea of fraternity" and rectify the excess of market fundamentalism, under which "people are treated not as an end but as a means," as he wrote in articles for Voice, a Japanese magazine, and The New York Times.

He calls for "policies that regenerate the ties that bring people together, that take greater account of nature and the environment, that rebuild welfare and medical systems, that provide better education and child-rearing support, and that address wealth disparities." These will require enormous efforts.

In the field of diplomacy, the DPJ government has to ensure stable relations with other nations ― especially the United States, whose cooperation is indispensable for Japan's defense and maintaining stability in East Asia. It also has to deal with the emergence of China as an economic and military power. The path ahead for the DPJ government will be rough. Given the difficult situation, Mr. Hatoyama as the next leader of Japan needs to exercise decisiveness on the basis of farsightedness.

衆院選挙で民主党が480議席中308議席を獲得し、自公与党に勝利するという日本の議会政治の歴史に劇的変化が起きた。

1955年以来ほとんど切れ目なく続いた自民党支配が終わる。男女同権の普通選挙導入以降、野党一党が衆院選で単独過半数を獲得し与党を破ったのは初めて。当然のように政権交代が実現する新たな民主主義の時代の到来だ。しかし、今回の選挙結果は単純に民主党支持と解釈してはならない。

2005年秋の衆院選では小泉政権のスローガン「改革を止めるな」が支持されたが、国民の生活は向上せず、賃金は上がらず、労働者の非正規社員率が3分の1となり、貧困問題が深刻化した。

小泉政権以降、選挙なしで首相が3人交代した自民党や、定額給付金や厚労省分割などの方針でころころと態度を変えた麻生首相に対する国民の不信感が、民主党への追い風となった。

各政党は未来への全体構想を明示できなかったが、国会議員100人を各省庁に配置、「閣僚委員会」や首相直属「国家戦略局」の設置といった、民主党の「官僚政治からの脱却」が目立った。

政官財の癒着を断つには、官僚が握る情報を入手・分析して官僚を導き管理する必要がある。

不況で失業率上昇が見込まれる中、経済回復が最大の課題だ。GDPの170 % という長期債務の問題にも取り組まねばならない。

民主党の鳩山代表は「友愛」を強調し、人間の尊厳を失わせる市場原理主義を批判、環境重視、福祉・医療制度の立て直し、教育・子育て支援、格差是正を訴えた。実現には大変な努力が必要だ。米国米国を含む諸外国との安定した関係構築も必須だ。軍事的・経済的大国としての中国と向き合うという課題もある。鳩山氏には次期首相として先見性と果断な行動を求めたい。