Political conflict in Iran
(From The Japan Times June 25 issue)

要約
民主的体制への脱皮が危ぶまれるイラン

The situation in Iran is tense as security forces have clashed with protesters over the June 12 election whose results — announced within two hours of the polls closing — gave incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the win over Mr. Mir Hossein Mousavi, the moderate reform candidate.

Despite a pre-election prediction that it would be a neck and neck race, the announced results indicated a landslide victory for Mr. Ahmadinejad — about 63 percent of the vote from some 40 million people said to have cast paper ballots, to Mr. Mousavi's 34 percent. This has triggered mass protest demonstrations by supporters of Mr. Mousavi, who has called for a new election, claiming that the president stole the election. The demonstrations have resulted in some 500 arrests. More than 10 people are reported to have died with hundreds injured.

In light of the the Guardian Council's admission that the number of votes recorded in 50 cities amounted to 3 million more than the number of eligible voters, a new election should be the best way to dispel suspicions about the election results and calm the situation. But the council has turned down complaints that the election was invalid, saying that whatever irregularities existed were not serious enough to change the outcome of the election. This attitude will make it difficult to solve the turmoil through legal procedures.

While Mr. Mousavi called for a continuation of non-violent protests, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said no more protests over the election would be allowed. The Revolutionary Guards warned on their Web site that protesters will face "revolutionary confrontation."

More severe crackdowns, however, could generate even greater protests that could shake the present regime. Another scenario would be a break in the delicate balance between conservative and reform forces with the heavy-handed politics of hard-line conservatives prevailing. While clerics have ultimate political power in Iran, democratic procedures have functioned comparatively better there than in other Islamic nations in the Middle East. This trait should not be weakened.

アフマディネジャド大統領が穏健改革派ムサビ元首相を破ったイラン大統領選の不正を訴える市民と治安部隊の衝突で、緊張が続いている。

接戦が予想された選挙の現職圧勝で、元首相支持者による抗議デモが勃発した。

護憲評議会は、50都市で投票数が有権者数を上回ったと発表したが、選挙結果の大勢に影響はないとして再選挙を却下した。

元首相が非暴力デモを呼びかける一方、最高指導者ハメネイ師は抗議の全停止を要求、革命防衛隊も「革命的方法で対決する」と警告した。

弾圧強化はさらなる反発を呼び、政権を揺るがすかもしれない。保守強硬派の圧制で保守派と改革派のバランスが崩れる可能性もある。イランでは聖職者が政治の実権を握るが、中東イスラム教国の中では民主的手続きが比較的うまく機能してきた。この特質は維持されるべきだ。