Deadly surge in Baghdad
(From The Japan Times May 9 issue)

要約
宗派間対立でテロ急増のイラク

A surge in violence in Baghdad has prompted fears that Iraq may be on the verge of a new spasm of sectarian violence. Many think the attacks are intended to sew doubts about the wisdom of the upcoming withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq. By this logic, the bombings are intended to force the United States to stay on, with the implication that the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is weak and that he is merely an American puppet.

April was one of the bloodiest months in Iraq in years. According to one estimate, over 450 people were killed in political violence in April, up from 335 in March, 228 in February and 242 in January. In Baghdad alone, more than 200 people were killed, more than double the number of March and four times the casualties of February.

Most of the attacks target Shiite civilians, the majority of the population in Iraq. This raises fears that a Sunni insurgency is launching a new campaign. Sunnis are angry that they no longer control the levers of power in Iraq as they did during the Saddam Hussein years. Their anger at being displaced has fueled numerous insurgencies since the fall of that odious regime. The readiness of many Shiites to take revenge for the injustices they suffered during that time has only increased Sunni resentments. As the wheel of retribution turns, the country totters on the brink of a descent into sectarian violence.

The real target for the insurgents is the scheduled withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraqi cities June 30. They will turn over full responsibility for security in urban areas to Iraqi forces. That will symbolize for many the coming of age of the new government in Baghdad — as well as open the door to abuse of the Sunni minority.

U.S. officials say the violence has not derailed their plans to pull back the forces. They will not leave Iraq until 2011, but they will leave the cities and retreat to bases outside urban areas. Trainers and advisors will stay on in the cities, and combat troops may patrol urban areas from bases outside the city limits.

The Iraqi government has not asked them to stay on, however. Mr. al-Maliki knows that requesting an extension of the U.S. presence would be a dangerous sign of weakness, and would undermine his credibility and legitimacy. The government has insisted that the withdrawal proceed as scheduled and has promised that no security vacuum will be created.

It is not clear how capable the Iraqi security forces really are. They have been slow to reach staffing levels, their training is uneven and their motivations opaque. On the other hand, there are several reasons to believe they may be able to manage the violence. The departure of the U.S. forces will deprive the insurgents of a ready target. Indeed, the purpose of the insurgency could be to forestall that event, which has prompted the recent surge. Also, Baghdad has already been "cleansed." Most neighborhoods are no longer mixed and that will eliminate many of the tensions that contributed to violence in the past.

Mr. al-Maliki understands that this is a critical moment for his government. The U.S. determination to stick to the withdrawal schedule means that the Baghdad government has to begin actually governing. It cannot count on the Americans to step in. There are already signs of this new attitude: After one series of attacks, the government named a special panel to investigate. And the police commissioners responsible for security in the area where the suicide bombings occurred were detained.

There is yet another response to the violence that the government has not yet tried: genuine reconciliation with all forces in Iraq. Shiites are a majority in Iraq, but they should recognize that the only successful government will be one that includes all the country's citizens.

The withdrawal of U.S. forces is a symbol of the return of sovereignty — as was the first election after Hussein was removed from power, the creation of the first government and the start of the new constitution. The government in Baghdad will have to take responsibility for governing and take responsibility for the fate of all Iraq's citizens. It is a daunting assignment.

While Mr. al-Maliki must step up, it does not mean that others can wash their hands. Iraq needs the world's help more than ever. We should be ready to provide it as long as Iraqis do their part.

イラクの首都バグダッドでテロが相次ぎ、宗派対立の再燃が懸念されている。米軍撤退後の治安に対する不安を煽り、駐留を延期させるのが攻撃の目的のようだ。4月のイラク人犠牲者は今年最悪の450人といわれる。

攻撃の対象は多数派シーア派で、スンニ派が新たな攻勢に入った恐れがある。フセイン政権時代の権力を奪われたスンニ派の暴動に対し、当時抑圧されていたシーア派が報復姿勢を示していることで、宗派闘争の激化が危ぶまれる。

攻撃の真の標的は、米軍の都市部撤退だ。イラク軍による治安維持開始は、新政府の始まりと同時に、少数派スンニ派への抑圧も意味する。

米当局は撤退日程に変更はないとして、2011年の全面撤退までは、都市部でのイラク治安部隊への助言と訓練は続け、それ以外の地域に駐留する米戦闘部隊が都市部を警備する。イラク政府は駐留延長を要求していない。

イラク治安部隊の質、訓練、意欲のレベルは高くはないが、米軍撤退で武装勢力が格好の標的を失えば、治安維持は可能だ。また、首都では、以前のように異なる宗派が同地域に共存することはなく、対立が減るだろう。

マリキ首相は政権が重要な局面にあると認識しており、テロ続発後、イラク政府は調査委員会を任命、現場地域の警察本部長は拘束された。

残る解決策は、イラク政府によるあらゆる勢力との和解だ。国民全体を受け入れることなしに政府は成立しないことを、多数派シーア派は認識すべきだ。

フセイン氏退陣後初の選挙や新政府、新憲法の設立のときと同じく、米軍撤退は主権返還の象徴となり、政府は全国民の運命を背負う。マリキ首相が一層の努力を続ける一方で、ますます国際社会の助けが必要なイラクに対し、我々は常に手を差し伸べられるようあるべきだ。