Despite a ray of hope, G-7 emphasized that downside risks persist
(From The Japan Times April 30 issue)

要約
かすかな希望、楽観は禁物：G7共同声明

After meeting in Washington on April 24, Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers released a statement saying that while the G-7 nations are experiencing a deep economic downturn and financial stress, recent data suggest that the pace of decline in the G-7 economies has slowed and some signs of stabilization are emerging.

For the first time since last fall, G-7 financial leaders have painted a somewhat bright prospect, saying that economic activities should begin to recover later this year. Their words must have given a sense of relief to markets.

Nevertheless, as U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said after the meeting, advanced and emerging nations "should not let their guard down but keep up their work to lift their economies out of recession." In fact, the G-7 statement emphasized that downside risks persist.

Saying that the financial crisis has led the global economy into a recessionary phase, the International Monetary Fund has lowered its projection of world economic growth for 2009 to minus 1.3 percent — almost 2 percentage points less than originally forecast. The Japanese economy is forecast to shrink 6.2 percent, much worse than America's 2.8 percent shrinkage.

The Japanese government April 27 revised downward its economic outlook for 2009. Japan's gross domestic product is predicted to shrink by 3.3 percent in real terms, worse than the zero growth predicted in December.

It also fears deflationary pressure. The consumer prices general index is expected to drop a record 1.3 percent, worse than the earlier anticipated minus 0.4 percent.

Although the IMF expects the world economy to grow a modest 1.9 percent in 2010, problems remain. The IMF says that from 2007 to 2010 losses suffered by financial institutions will grow to $ 4 trillion. The total picture of bad loans held by U.S. financial institutions is still unclear. The U.S. car industry is struggling to survive. It is important for the international community to boost cooperation while steadily implementing economic stimulus measures and regulatory reform.

米国で開かれた先進7カ国財務相・中央銀行総裁会議（G7）は、7カ国は不況に陥っているものの、最近は景気後退速度の鈍化や安定化の兆候を示すデータもあると発表した。

国際通貨基金（IMF）は今年の世界経済見通しを下方修正し、マイナス1.3％成長とした。日本経済は6.2％減。

一方、日本政府は今年度経済見通しで、実質の国内総生産（GDP）成長率をマイナス3.3％に引き下げた。

IMFは、世界経済は2010年には1.9％程度の成長に回復するとの見通しを示したが、2007年から2010年の金融機関の損失は4兆ドルに上るとしている。米金融機関が保有する不良債権の全体像は不明瞭で、米自動車業界も生き残りに必死だ。各国が協力を強化し、経済刺激策と規制改革を着実に実施していくことが重要だ。