There is no choice for Pakistan but to face the Taliban security threat
(From The Japan Times April 17 issue)

要約
対テロ問題に直面するパキスタン

akistan is in a struggle for its survival, acknowledges President Asif Ali Zardari. He is not exaggerating. In early April, the country suffered three suicide bombings in 24 hours and the Pakistan Taliban have vowed to maintain that murderous pace if the government does not halt its support for U.S. missile strikes against Taliban forces in Pakistan. Giving in would be a mistake: The Taliban show no interest in peaceful coexistence. They are determined to extend their reach no matter what the means or what the cost.

Mr. Baitullah Mehsud, leader of the Pakistani Taliban, has claimed responsibility for many of the suicide attacks and has promised to increase them to two a week if the government in Islamabad does not end its support for U.S. missile attacks on Pakistan soil. Mr. Mehsud said that the Islamabad bombing was in retaliation for an attack on him that missed its target but took 10 lives.

The United States has stepped up attacks from drones, remotely piloted aircraft, against al-Qaida operatives that have taken sanctuary in Pakistan frontier areas just across the border with Afghanistan. The attacks have been extremely successful, killing about a dozen top al-Qaida members. But they have also killed bystanders and this has created significant problems for the Pakistani government.

Officially, Islamabad protests the attacks, denouncing them as a violation of the country's sovereignty. Unofficially, the government is reported to have given the United States a green light, a tacit acknowledgment of its inability to clean the border regions of Taliban and their supporters. Mr. Mehsud aims to end that policy of quiet acquiescence.

Giving in to blackmail would be a mistake. The Taliban may have been prepared to declare a truce, but it would only be temporary, until the next time Islamabad dares defy the group. Then the violence would resume. The Pakistani government recognizes as much. In the aftermath of the bombings, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani ordered an increase in security and lawmakers from his party are preparing a policy that will curb the influence of extremism in Pakistan, focusing on the Islamic schools that many blame for radicalizing youth in the country.

The Islamabad government is right to note that an effective strategy against extremism must go beyond the military response. It is not enough to declare war on the Taliban and their supporters. "Draining the swamp" that breeds extremism means giving young Pakistanis more choices. That means finding ways to help develop the frontier regions. The United States has offered $7.5 billion in aid over five years to make those changes possible. Japan has been helping with aid of its own: In addition to offering $5 million to help displaced persons in Pakistan, Japan and the World Bank hosted a Pakistan Donors Conference in Tokyo on April 17 that was expected to raise another $4 billion.

Money matters, but just as important is changing the security mind-set in Pakistan. For many Pakistanis and even those within the security forces, the Taliban pose a secondary threat to the country's security. The main problem continues to be India, a rival since Pakistan's birth and possessor of the Muslim-populated region of Kashmir. For this group, support for the Taliban makes sense if it prevents the consolidation of Indian influence in Afghanistan. Moreover, Islamic extremists have long pressured the government in Delhi to change policy toward Kashmir, a goal that Islamabad shares. From this perspective, the Taliban and their allies are an instrument of Pakistan's foreign and national security policy, not enemies of the state.

The question Pakistan must face is which relationship is more important: that with Islamic extremists or that with the United States. Many Pakistanis do not believe that the insurgency is truly their problem. Rather, they feel that they are being forced into America's war. By this logic, if they refused to fight, the terrorists would leave them alone. It is a seductive thought, but it is also false. Mr. Zardari is right. The failure to take on the Taliban could undermine Pakistan itself.

パキスタンは生き残りの戦いを続けている。今月初め、24時間以内に自爆テロが3件発生、イスラム原理主義組織タリバンは、米国によるミサイル攻撃をパキスタン政府が支援し続ける限りテロをやめないと言う。だがテロの脅威に屈してはいけない。彼らは平和共存に関心はなく、あらゆる手段で勢力拡大を目論んでいる。

米国は国際テロ組織アルカイダ根絶のためにアフガニスタン国境地帯の攻撃を続けているが、パキスタン側に民間被害が出て問題となった。パキスタン政府は主権侵害として米国の攻撃停止を求めているが、内密には同地域のタリバン掃討のために承認しているという情報もある。

自爆テロ後、同国のギラニ首相は警備強化とテロの温床となっている過激派イスラム学校に対する政策づくりを指示している。

パキスタン政府は、過激派との闘いは武力のみでは成功しないと認識している。過激派の温床を根絶させ若者に選択肢を与えるため、米政府は国境地帯への75億ドルの復興支援を発表。日本政府と世界銀行はパキスタン支援国会合を共催、40億ドル規模の支援策が予定された。

パキスタン人や治安部隊には、タリバンよりもインドが脅威だという人も多く、アフガニスタンに対するインドの影響力拡大を防ぐためならタリバンを支持する。さらにイスラム過激派はインドにカシミール政策の変革を求めている点でパキスタン政府の国防方針と一致している。

パキスタン政府にとってイスラム過激派と米国どちらとの関係が重要か。多くのパキスタン国民は反政府活動よりも、米国の戦争に巻き込まれることを恐れ、戦わずにいればテロも止むと考えているが、それは間違いだ。タリバンと戦わなければパキスタン自体が危機にさらされる。