Policy speech shows Fukuda has good ideas, but will they translate to action?
(From The Japan Times Jan. 20 issue)

要約
福田首相の施政方針演説

In his second policy speech before the Diet, Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda made clear that his administration has abandoned the basic policy line of his predecessor, Mr. Shinzo Abe, who called for a "departure from the postwar regime" and constitutional revisions. Symbolically, Mr. Fukuda did not use the word "reform," a catchword used by Mr. Abe and his predecessor, Mr. Junichiro Koizumi. Instead, his speech used the word "people" 48 times and the word "environment" 23 times.

Mr. Fukuda accurately grasps the people's political sentiment. He listed strengthening the economy and measures to deal with the low birthrate among important issues. But it is questionable whether he can display the strong leadership and political skills needed to implement concrete measures that can solve these problems at a time when the Upper House is controlled by the opposition forces, and whether he can distinguish his policy line from that of the Democratic Party of Japan, the leading opposition party, whose slogan is "People's Lives Come First."

Presenting an antithesis to the market principle-oriented policy line pushed by Mr. Koizumi and Mr. Abe, Mr. Fukuda said that a system to neutralize public anxiety about the future should be established, and an economic system must be constructed that allows everyone to enjoy its fruits.

With regard to the rates of gasoline and other road-related taxes, which will become a hot political issue, Mr. Fukuda proposed maintaining them at current levels. The DPJ calls for reducing them to lower gasoline prices. Mr. Fukuda said that maintaining the tax rates at current levels is necessary to secure funds to improve roads, reduce congestion and deal with global warming.

Mr. Fukuda also called for the "realization of a low-carbon society." Japan is hosting the G-8 summit of industrialized nations this summer and there the fight against global warming is expected to be the top agenda.

The reality, however, is that Japan will unlikely be able to achieve the 6 percent emission cut from the 1990 baseline as required by the Kyoto Protocol. Mr. Fukuda's proposals and pledges will lose credibility if Japan fails to fulfill its Kyoto obligation.

Mr. Fukuda said that the social security system (including pensions) and measures to cope with the declining birthrate are issues that affect all the people. He stressed the importance of securing stable revenues to make the social security system sustainable. But he neglected to propose what changes should be made to the tax system, including the consumption tax, to secure such funds. He only said that he will convene a "People's Conference on Social Security" to discuss the future ideal shape of social security, the government's role in society security and who should pay how much. He also called on the political parties to frankly discuss these matters.

In the defense field, Mr. Fukuda called for the creation of a Japan that will cooperate with other countries in promoting peace. Specifically, he said that he will consider a permanent law that will enable overseas deployment of the Self-Defense Forces to "implement international peace cooperation activities effectively." Careful discussions must be held in considering such a law because it could undermine the Constitution's prohibition of the use of force to settle international disputes.

福田首相は施政方針演説で、「戦後レジームからの脱却」と憲法改正を求めた安倍前首相の基本方針を継承しないことを明確にした。また、安倍氏と小泉元首相が基本方針として掲げた「改革」には触れず、「国民」という言葉を48回、「環境」という言葉を23回使った。

参院が野党に支配されている現状で、福田氏が重要政策課題としてあげた景気対策、少子化対策などの問題を解決するために指導力と政治的手腕を発揮できるか疑問がある。また、福田政権の基本路線が「国民生活を優先する」民主党の路線とどう違うのかも問題だ。

福田首相は、小泉・安倍政権が推進した市場原理を基本とする改革路線に対照的な基本政策を提唱し、将来に対する国民の不安を解消するシステムが必要だと述べた。ガソリン税などの道路関連税について福田首相は、混雑緩和などに対処するため、現状維持を主張した。

首相はまた、今夏日本で開かれる主要先進国首脳会議（G8）に関連して、「低炭素社会」の実現を提唱した。

京都議定書で約束したように1990年のレベルから温室効果ガスを6 % 削減するのは、難しそうだ。もし実現できなければ、福田氏の提案、約束は信頼を失う。

年金などの社会保障制度について、福田首相は、制度を存続可能にするために、安定した財源の確保が重要としながら、具体的な施策には触れなかった。

防衛関係では、日本は平和促進のために国際協力をすべきと主張した。具体的には自衛隊の海外派遣を可能にする恒久法の制定を提唱した。

この問題については、国際紛争を解決するため武力の行使を禁止している憲法に抵触する恐れがあるため、慎重に議論する必要がある。