Mr. Vajpayee has reason to smile

インド総選挙の行方

The prime minister is to be applauded for his efforts to pry open the Indian economy, but much more needs to be done. A vote of confidence could give him a mandate for more sweeping change, and for more vigorous negotiations with Pakistan over the thorny issue of Kashmir.

Some 675 million people are eligible to vote in India; about 60 percent of them usually do, making Indian elections a showcase for democracy. The prize is control of the 545-seat Parliament and the government. Mr. Vajpayee, head of the Bharatiya Janata Party has led a multiparty coalition, the National Democratic Alliance, which has formed the government since 1998. He went into these polls expecting to maintain his post; exit polls indicate his confidence is justified.

Mr. Vajpayee can point to 8 percent annual economic growth as a measure of his success. He has reason to be proud: The Indian economy has grown 8 percent or more for three times since achieving independence. His policies have contributed to that figure, but more credit goes to nature: A good monsoon was equally responsible. Seven out of 10 Indians live in the countryside and the heaviest rains in five years spurred record agricultural production of 17 percent in the last quarter of 2003. That has fueled consumer spending, which has trickled through the rest of the economy.

The BJP's "shining India" platform is designed to showcase its economic success. Unfortunately, it appeared as if the limits of that record were on display in March when a stampede for saris at a campaign rally resulted in the deaths of more than 20 women. Mr. Vajpayee's challenge is to have the benefits of the country's economic success spread more evenly throughout the country.

The prime minister's strong showing has been helped by a lackluster opposition. The Congress Party, which has produced such leaders as Indira and Rajiv Gandhi, has been unable to rally support in recent years. The party is led by Rajiv's widow, Ms. Sonia Gandhi. The BJP has used her birth in Italy against her. Congress has not been able to come up with a convincing reason to claim the loyalties of the Indian electorate. Until it does, the party is likely to languish -- and Mr. Vajpayee will remain in power.

The absence of a credible political alternative could encourage an irresponsible leadership, but Mr. Vajpayee has played down the Hindu nationalist issues that his party rode to prominence in the last decade. There was no mention of the Ayodhya Temple, destroyed by Hindus over a decade ago, and the BJP is fielding more Muslim candidates. The prime minister and his coalition partners cannot afford to alienate 130 million Muslim voters.

The prime minister has another strong card: the prospect of peace negotiations with Pakistan. Mr. Vajpayee last year signaled his desire for rapprochement with his neighbor, a country with which India has fought three wars. Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, who recognizes that another conflict between the nuclear-armed rivals could result in a holocaust, reciprocated, and the two countries initiated peace talks in February. The two governments have agreed on a peace process and are set to resume negotiations after the elections conclude.

There are plenty of signs that the public of both countries would welcome real peace. The lowering of tensions allowed India to undertake its first full cricket tour of Pakistan in 14 years. Tens of millions of people watched the five-week series. Their thirst for athletic competition contrasts with the aims of bloody extremists on both sides of the Kashmir question who would settle their differences with bullets, not ballots.

Nearly two dozen people were killed and more than 50 wounded on the first day of voting. There are sure to be more casualties as voting continues. Nevertheless, criminals and thugs must not be allowed to dominate the elections or shape their outcome. The Indian people's commitment to democracy is a reason to celebrate, one more reason for Mr. Vajpayee to smile.

The Japan Times Weekly
May 1, 2004
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      首相が総選挙で国民の信任を得れば、さらなる経済改革、カシミール問題に関するパキスタンとの交渉に弾みがつく。

      インドの有権者は6億7500万人、投票率は通常60%程度と高く、民主主義の模範的な選挙が行われていると言える。今回の選挙では、与党インド人民党（BJP）党首のバジパイ首相が政権の座を維持すると予想される。

      インド経済は年率8%で成長を続けている。バジパイ政権の政策が成功する一方、モンスーンによる5年ぶりの大量降雨があり、2003年第4四半期の農業生産が17%増えたのも成長の要因だ。

      しかし、3月の政治集会で行われた民族衣装、サリーの無料配布で群衆が殺到、20人以上の女性が圧死した事件は、経済成長を享受する層が非常に偏っていることを示している。

      野党、国民議会派は過去にインディラ・ガンジー、ラジブ・ガンジー両首相を輩出したが、近年低迷している。同派の総裁は、ラジブ・ガンジー氏の未亡人、ソニア女史だが、BJPは女史がイタリア出身であることを攻撃材料に使っている。国民議会派は有権者の強い支持を得るまでにいたっていない。

     一方、BJPはヒンズー至上主義の色彩を薄め、イスラム教徒の候補者を増やしている。

      バジパイ首相は、パキスタンとの和平交渉も売り物にしている。両国は和平プロセスについて合意し、 選挙終了後に交渉を再開する。パキスタンでは14年ぶりに両国間のクリケット試合が行われた。

      今回の総選挙では投票初日に20人以上が殺害され、50人以上が負傷した。今後も死傷者は出るだろうが、暴力が選挙を支配することは許されない。そんな中、彼によるインド民主主義の道を国民が支持していることをバジパイ氏は喜ぶべきである。