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Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Physicists find formula for box office success

AFP-Jiji

Unlikely candidates for box office stardom, a team of Japanese physicists may soon be in high demand with moviemakers after devising a formula to predict how successful a film is likely to be.

The team from Tottori University devised a set of mathematical models that measure how much money was spent on advertising before a movie is released, over what period of time, and how much talk the film generated in social media.

Using the models, they predicted the popularity of a variety of blockbusters, including "The Da Vinci Code," "Spider Man 3" and "Avatar," which they later compared to actual revenue generated.

"They appeared to match very well, meaning the calculations could provide a fairly good prediction of how successful a movie could be even before it is released," said a statement from the Institute of Physics, which published the paper in the Journal of Physics on Friday.

The team hopes its model will work in other markets, such as online music, food, beverages and entertainment events.



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